Short Description
Bitcoin struggles at ten-month lows as analysts warn a critical support break signals a potential extended bear market. What’s next for BTC price?
Read Time
4 minutes, 30 seconds
Main Article
Bitcoin faces intensified selling pressure, tumbling below key support levels and settling at ten-month lows under $80,000. The plunge has shattered critical technical foundations, including the true market mean price of $80,700 and the vital 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Analysts are drawing direct parallels to previous market downturns, noting a bearish crossover between the 21-week and 50-week EMAs— a pattern last seen in April 2022 before a significant drop. This technical failure suggests the recent correction may be morphing into a deeper bear market, with some traders targeting further downside toward $74,400 and even $49,180.
While the medium-term outlook appears grim, short-term traders are eyeing a potential rally point. Attention has turned to a newly formed “gap” in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market around the $84,000 level. These gaps often act as temporary price magnets, pulling the asset to fill the void. This provides a glimmer of hope for a retracement rally in the coming weeks, offering a potential exit liquidity for remaining short positions. However, analysts caution that any bounce to fill the CME gap would need to convincingly reclaim lost support levels to be considered a meaningful recovery rather than a dead cat bounce.
The on-chain data reinforces the cautious narrative, pointing to a potential regime shift. BTC price has now broken below the realized price of investors who bought between 12-18 months ago—a cohort considered a stable, long-term holding base. Historically, when the spot price sustains below this aggregate cost basis, it transitions from a normal correction into a structural, extended bearish phase. With unrealized profits turning negative and network growth slowing, the combination of metrics suggests bulls may be in for a prolonged battle. The path forward remains uncertain, heavily dependent on whether Bitcoin can reclaim its lost fundamental supports or if history will repeat with a deeper downturn.
Short Summary
Bitcoin’s break below the 21-week EMA and the realized price of long-term holders signals a potential shift from correction to a structural bear market. While a short-term rally to fill the $84K CME gap is possible, on-chain data and historical patterns warn of an extended bearish phase. Traders should watch for a recovery above key support levels for any sign of trend reversal.
